1.8 million children are likely to be acutely malnourished; Risk of Famine persists in some areas

28 February 2022, Mogadishu – Large-scale humanitarian assistance and 2022 Deyr rainfall that performed relatively better than the past two seasons will likely avert Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Somalia during the January to June 2023 period. However, drought conditions persist, and 6.5 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes between April and June 2023 amid an anticipated significant scale-down of humanitarian assistance, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall in the April to June 2023 Gu season, high food prices, and, in many areas, ongoing conflict/insecurity, on top of the lasting impacts of five consecutive seasons of below-average to poor rainfall. Among the food-insecure population, up to 223,000 people are expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in the most severely drought- and conflict-affected areas across Somalia through mid-2023. Moreover, high levels of acute malnutrition persist in most parts of the country, driven by chronic health and WASH factors and exacerbated by reduced food and milk intake and disease outbreaks. Based on the results of 31 nutrition surveys conducted by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and partners between October and December 2022, the total estimated acute malnutrition burden for Somalia from January to December 2023 is approximately 1.8 million children, including 477,700 children who are likely to be severely malnourished.

While Famine (IPC Phase 5) is no longer assessed to be the most likely scenario in April-June 2023, there remains a risk of such extreme acute food insecurity outcome. The 63rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF63) forecast for the March to May 2023 season points to below-average rainfall, high temperatures, and drier-than-normal conditions in parts of Somalia. However, the waning of La Niña climate conditions is anticipated to...