Worsening drought is putting some areas in central and southern Somalia at an increased Risk of Famine through at least September 2022 if the current Gu season crop and livestock production fails, food prices continue to rise sharply and humanitarian assistance is not scaled up to reach those most in need. These areas include Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiraan, Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central, Agro Pastoral livelihoods in Bay and Bakool regions, and IDP settlements in Baidoa, Mogadishu, Dhusamareb, and Galkacyo. The situation in Bay region is particularly concerning as the acute malnutrition threshold for Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been breached in Baidoa district. Mortality (Crude Death Rate) has reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold in Bay Agropastoral of Burhakaba and Baidoa districts, and death rates among children have reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold in Bay Agropastoral of Baidoa district. While a Famine (IPC Phase 5) classification requires at least two of the three criteria to be met, the increase in acute malnutrition levels and mortality signal that loss of life and livelihoods is already occurring.

Acute food insecurity has continued to worsen across Somalia, with an estimated 5.2 million people (or 33% of the total population) already experiencing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) outcomes, including 38 000 people likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), as of May 2022, despite the ongoing delivery of humanitarian food assistance. Food assistance reached an average of 2.4 million people per month between February and April 2022 and has likely prevented the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes in many areas. However, humanitarian assistance delivery is far short of the rising level of need, and insufficient funding is expected to lead to pipeline breaks in food assistance delivery after June. Food insecurity and malnutrition are expected to deteriorate further and faster between June and September 2022, and if humanitarian food assistance is not scaled up and sustained, then approximately 7.1 million people (or 45% of the total population) are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) outcomes. This figure includes 2.1 million people that will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 213 000 people that will likely be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In addition to the population groups that face an increased Risk of Famine, other areas of concern include Northern Inland Pastoral of Northwest, Hawd Pastoral of Northwest, Southern Agropastoral, Southern Rain-fed Agropastoral of Middle and Lower Juba, and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones as well as IDP settlements in Burao, Lasaanod, Garoowe, Belet Weyne, Doolow and Kismaayo, all of which face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between June and September 2022.

Based on the results from 11 integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted between late April...