Nearly 8.3 million people across Somalia face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes

Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected in three areas

13 December 2022, Mogadishu – Amid an anticipated scale-down in humanitarian assistance starting in April 2023 due to insufficient funding, approximately 8.3 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes between April and June 2023. This unprecedented level of need within Somalia is driven by the impacts of five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks. Furthermore, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected between April and June 2023 among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay region and among internally displaced people (IDP) in Baidoa town of Bay region and in Mogadishu.  These three areas are already currently experiencing very high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality consistent with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In addition, an increasing number of people are expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in multiple other areas across Somalia through mid-2023. The results of past integrated surveys conducted between May and July 2022 and subsequent IPC acute malnutrition analysis conducted in August remain valid, with the total estimated acute malnutrition burden in Somalia reaching approximately 1.8 million children, including 513,550 children who are likely to be severely malnourished, through July 2023.

In addition to the Famine (IPC Phase 5) projection in Bay region and Mogadishu, several areas in central and southern Somalia have an increased Risk of Famine between April and June 2023 if (1) the 2023 Gu season rainfall turns out to be poorer than currently predicted, leading to more crop and livestock production failures and (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and population groups facing an increased Risk of Famine are Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiiraan; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Central; Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Middle Shabelle; and IDP settlements in Garowe, Galkacyo, and Dollow. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition and elevated mortality levels are already occurring in these areas.

Funding for humanitarian food assistance is currently sufficient to reach over 5.8 million people per month, on average, through March 2023, which is expected...