Close to 1.8 million children are likely to be acutely malnourished; Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected in two districts

12 September 2022, Mogadishu – Amid a scale-down in funded humanitarian assistance in late 2022, approximately 6.7 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes between October and December 2022. Furthermore, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts and displaced people in Baidoa town of Bay region in southern Somalia, where malnutrition and mortality levels are already very high. These projections reflect the population still in need of urgent assistance after accounting for already planned food assistance for October to December 2022. Humanitarian needs are extremely high due to the impacts of four consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, an anticipated fifth season of below-average rainfall from October to December, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks (primarily acute watery diarrhea/cholera and measles). Moreover, the nutrition situation has deteriorated across most of the country. Acute malnutrition case admissions among children under age five have continued to rise sharply. Based on the results of 29 integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted by the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and partners in May, June and July 2022 and the subsequent IPC acute malnutrition analysis conducted in August, the total estimated acute malnutrition burden for Somalia from August 2022 to July 2023 is approximately 1.8 million children. This figure represents 54.5 percent of the total population of children in Somalia and includes 513,550 children who are likely to be severely malnourished. While projections were not produced for 2023, persistent drought is expected to worsen the level of humanitarian needs during the January to March 2023 dry Jilaal season across most of Somalia.

In addition to the Famine (IPC Phase 5) projection in two districts of Bay Region, several areas in central and southern Somalia have an increased Risk of Famine through at least December 2022 if (1) the 2022 Deyr season rainfall turns out to be poorer than currently predicted, leading to more crop and livestock production failures and (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and...