NEARLY 4.6 MILLION PEOPLE IN SOMALIA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH LEVELS OF ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY
Issued: March 31, 2025
- In late March, the IPC Technical Working Group in Somalia conducted an update of their analysis released in February 2025. This update reflects the likely impact of the major reduction in humanitarian assistance funding announced recently and also a likely further increase in population displacement due to drought and conflict.
- There were 21 areas analysed in the acute food insecurity projection update based on changes to humanitarian assistance and other aggravating factors such as conflict and drought-related displacement. The reprioritization of humanitarian food and cash assistance led to a massive reduction in some areas and an increase in others, such as Mudug IDPs (Galdogob, Hobyo and Jariiban) or Galgaduud urban (Dhuusamareeb).
- For the 21 areas, 36 percent of the population is projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) with 9 percent in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), and 28 percent in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This is compared to 6 percent and 22 percent, respectively, that were projected in the January 2025 analysis.
- The reduction in humanitarian funding is already affecting the nutrition, health, and WASH service delivery, impacting the nutrition outcome for two rural livelihoods which have worsened from Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3) to Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4).
ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY UPDATED PROJECTION OVERVIEW AND KEY DRIVERS
Nearly 4.6 million people in Somalia will likely experience high levels of acute food insecurity – IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) – between April and June 2025. This includes about 784,000 people (4 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and nearly 3.8 million people (20 percent of the population analysed) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This reflects an increase compared to the projection done in January 2025 which estimated that 4.4 million people would be in IPC Phase 3 or above between April and June 2025. For the 21 areas analysed as part of this update, the revised number of people in IPC Phase 3 or above between April and June 2025 is 713,000 people compared to 553,000 people estimated in the January 2025 analysis, or a net increase of nearly 160,000 people (29 percent).
Although the January 2025 IPC analysis indicated a likely deterioration of the food security situation between April and June 2025, the current update reflects a further worsening of food insecurity in several parts of the country, resulting in 18 areas that see the number of people facing Phase 3 or above increasing.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Danish Refugee Council (DRC) estimate that Somalia will see an increase of 230,595 internally displaced persons (IDPs) between April to June 2025, mainly due to conflict and drought-related displacement. The reduction in humanitarian funding will lead to a significant reduction in the coverage of humanitarian food and cash assistance among IDP populations in Borama, Hargeysa, Buuhoodle, Owdweyne, Taleex, Xudun, Burtinle, Eyl, Jalalaqsi, Cadale, Diinsoor, Xudur and Ceel Waaq districts as well as rural populations in Jalalaqsi, Baardheere, Doolow and Luuq districts. Areas/districts that registered a significant increase in IDP populations due to conflict/insecurity and drought include Banadir, Baydhaba, Luuq, Kismaayo, Afmadow, Bossaso, Buuhoodle, Badhaadhe, Jowhar, Doolow, Gaalkacyo, Qardho, Belet Xaawo, Baardheere and Saakow. Some of these districts – Badhaadhe, Buuhoodle, Doolow and Luuq – also face the combined negative effect of an increase in population displacement and a concurrent reduction in humanitarian assistance.
Among the 21 population groups analysed, deteriorations in food security outcomes are expected to occur within the same IPC phase but still lead to an increase in the number of people in Phase 3 or above. For five of the population groups analysed, the changes have resulted in a deterioration to a worse phase - from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). These are IDP populations in Hiraan (Bulo Burto and Jalalaqsi), Middle Shabelle (Adan Yabaal, Balcad, Cadale and Jowhar), Nugaal (Burtinle and Eyl), Hargeysa, urban populations in Bari (Bandarbeyla, Caluula, Iskushuban, Qandala and Qardho), and rural populations in Gedo Riverine livelihood. For three other areas, the food insecurity situation has been revised to show an improvement, with one area [Galgaduud urban (Dhuusamarreeb)] moving from Phase 3 to Phase 2, thanks to the HFA readjustment.
The key drivers for the likely deterioration of the food security situation during the projection period include anticipated below average Gu (April-June) season rainfall, above average food prices, continued conflict and insecurity, and localised flooding. During that period, the social support it still expected to increase during Ramadan/Eid holiday (March) and Hajj festivities (June).
ACUTE MALNUTRITION UPDATED PROJECTION OVERVIEW AND CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
The total acute malnutrition burden estimate for January to December 2025 has also increased to 1.8 million children aged 6-59 months, including 479,000 children likely to be severely malnourished. Compared to the January 2025 analysis, with a total burden estimate of 1.7 million for the same period, the revised estimate reflects an increase of nearly 47,000 children facing acute malnutrition.
The reduction in humanitarian funding is already affecting the delivery of services across the nutrition, health, and WASH sectors, which is expected to have a direct and significant impact on the levels of acute malnutrition across the country. Sixteen districts mainly in rural areas – Adan Yabal, Balcad, Jowhar, Buloburto, Jalalqsi, Burhakaba, Afgoye, Badhadhe, Garbaharey, Dhusamareeb, Qardho, Caynabo, Lascanood, Lasqoray, Zeylac, and Lughaye – have been identified as the most affected; and their respective livelihood zones – Guban pastoral, Bay agropastoral, Beletweyne riverine and agropastoral, Shabelle riverine, Shabelle agropastoral, Juba cattle, South Gedo riverine, South Gedo pastoral, South Gedo agropastoral, Buloburto, West Golis, Northen Inland Pastoral of Northwest, East Golis, Northern Inland Pastoral of Northeast and Addun pastoral – were, therefore, considered for the revised projection analysis.
The January 2025 analysis showed that acute malnutrition situation was expected to deteriorate between April and June 2025 in these livelihood zones, primarily due to seasonal variations and persistent vulnerabilities following the worsening of conditions observed during the 2024 Deyr. However, after accounting for the cumulative effects of the funding reduction, acute malnutrition situation is projected to deteriorate even further threatening the lives of children.
In Guban and Addun pastoral livelihood zones, acute malnutrition levels are now expected to deteriorate from IPC AMN Phase 3 (Serious) to Phase 4 (Critical) between April and June 2025. Similarly, in Beledweyne rural (riverine and agropastoral), Shabelle Riverine, Shabelle Riverine agropastoral, and Bay agropastoral livelihoods, further significant deterioration is anticipated but within the same Phase 4 (Critical).
The further worsening of acute malnutrition during the projection period is driven by the closure of health facilities, suspension of therapeutic and supplementary and feeding programs with the highest impact in the sixteen affected districts. The reduction in healthcare access is expected to lead to a surge in childhood illnesses, with many cases going to be left untreated at the community level, increasing the risk of progression to severe stages. Combined with increased household hunger gaps due to reduced food assistance, persistent inadequate child feeding practices and limited access to clean safe water, these conditions create a high-risk environment for the surge of acute malnutrition threatening lives of children.
In terms of magnitude, it is estimated that the burden of acutely malnourished children in these 16 districts will increase by 15 percent from previously at 312,000 to an updated 359,000 malnourished children aged 6-59 months. This has contributed to an overall increase in burden of acute
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