Special Brief Post Deyr 2010/11 Analysis

Issued: February 15, 2011

The findings of the FSNAU, FEWSNET and partner post Deyr 2010/11 seasonal assessment indicate that the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia has increased by 20 percent to 2.4 million.This represents 32 percent of Somalia’s 7.5 million people. Failure of the Deyr seasonal rains linked to prevailing La Niña event affecting Somalia, caused a severe water crisis in most parts of the country with the exception of north-western regions. The dry conditions have also resulted in substantial crop harvest failure in the South and Central crop-producing regions. The resulting dramatic increases in the prices of water and local cereals are the main drivers of the deteriorating food security situation in Somalia. The situation is exacerbated by the sustained conflict, which continues to be the primary reason of displacement affecting southern and central parts of the country. FSNAU identifies about 910,000 of Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs) as a single population in crisis; in addition, 940,000 people in Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) and 535,000 in Humanitarian Emergency (HE) are concentrated in rural and urban areas. In rural areas the ongoing widespread humanitarian crisis affects about one million drought-stricken people with rising numbers of destitute pastoralists currently estimated at 45,000 people (7 percent increase from Gu 2010). This increase is attributed to the worsening situation in Coastal Deeh and Central Agropastoral (Cowpea Belt) that have suffered from several consecutive seasons of drought. Additionally, 475,000 urban poor with severely stressed purchasing power due to soaring food prices are also in crisis. Somalia’s nutrition situation has also deteriorated in the last six months of 2010 due to a combination of factors such as the deteriorating food security situation, lack of clean water which increases diarrhoeal disease and reduced access to milk. The number of malnourished children increased by about 7 percent and is currently estimated at 241,000 children under 5 years of age as acutely malnourished, of which 57,000 are severely malnourished. Southern regions are worst affected, hosting 75 percent (or 181,000) of all caseloads of acute malnutrition and 80 percent of all the severely malnourished children.

Large-scale Crop Failure Affecting Farmers in the South
Population in agropastoral and riverine areas of southern Somalia, who predominantly rely on rainfall for subsistence farming, have suffered from a significant decline of the Deyr 2010 cereal crop production, which is only one-fifth of the normal short rain season production. As a result, in the South, the number of people in crisis increased by almost 70 percent in agropastoral and riverine areas and currently stands at 440,000 people. Considering that this is the 2nd cropping season of the year, while the preceding Gu season yielded an exceptionally good harvest, cereal stocks are still available in many areas. Therefore, the increase in the number of people in crisis was relatively modest compared to the crop losses experienced in this season. Agropastoral livelihoods in the South are more affected compared to riverine communities, as the former experienced a complete failure of crop harvest. Therefore, 76 percent of the affected farmers are from agropastoral livelihoods. However, Hiran riverine livelihood has the largest proportion of the population in crisis (89% of the livelihood’s population) due to 8 consecutive seasons of significant crop losses.

Accelerated Urban Food Security Crisis
Significant increases in local cereal prices caused by cereal crop harvest failure and speculation by traders in the South, primarily affected the market dependant urban households and resulted in a considerable 52 percent increase of urban population in crisis since the post-Gu 2010. Currently, 475,000 of urban poor are estimated to be in crisis, of whom 38 percent are in Humanitarian Emergency. Food access of the affected population is constrained by high food prices, increased competition from drought-affected rural population and IDPs for scarce job opportunities and social support as well as lack of humanitarian support. The rising cost of living has eroded the purchasing power of large numbers of urban poor and IDPs restricting their access to food, particularly in South, Central as well as in parts of the North. However, in Somaliland Shilling areas (SlSh) of the Northwest the situation has improved, partly due to the bumper Gu/Karan harvest in October 2010, which lead to a considerable decline in locally-produced cereal prices.
The Drought Affects Pastoral Livelihoods 
The pastoral areas in most of the country are severely affected by the water crisis caused by largely failed Deyr rains. The rural population in crisis in pastoral areas is currently estimated at 435,000. The pastoral livelihoods most threatened by the water crisis, given the high water and fodder requirement, are those with cattle and sheep, which have limited ability for migrating long distances. These pastoralists are predominantly found in Central (Coastal Deeh) and Juba regions. The worst situation is in the livelihood zones of Coastal Deeh (Central, Middle Shabelle and Nugaal regions), Cowpea Belt (Central and Middle Shabelle regions) as well as Southern Inland Pastoral of Hiran region, where livestock (cattle, sheep and goat) deaths due to the scarcity of water and pasture were reported.

Increasing Numbers of Internally Displaced People (IDPs)
Number of IDPs abandoning their homes and livelihoods to escape the rampant conflict in southern and central parts of Somalia increased up to 1.46 million people (4%) in the second half of 2010. Nearly half of the IDPs are integrated in rural and urban communities and share the plights of drought-stricken population. The IDPs considered outside of the rural and urban numbers from FSNAU are currently estimated at 910,000 and represent 2nd largest single population group in crisis. These IDPs are equally affected by soaring food prices, limited humanitarian support, particularly those in South and Central with malnutrition rates above 20 percent.

Alarming Nutrition Situation in the South
With an estimated 241,000 children acutely malnourished, of whom 57,000 are in severe state, reflecting about 7 percent increase in the cases, Somalia’s nutrition situation has deteriorated in the last six months of 2010.  The South, currently in Critical to Very Critical phases, is worst affected, and host 75 percent (or 181,000) of all caseloads of acute malnutrition and 80 percent of all the severely malnourished children.  Based on median rates of acute malnutrition in the South, one in four children is acutely malnourished, and one in twenty-three severely malnourished. The nutrition situation in the South remains as one of the worst in the world with shrinking humanitarian aid and reduced access to basic services, such as health care and clean water, severely constraining children’s capacity to meet their development potential.  However, in the central and nothern regions, there are short term improvements attributed to the after effects of the good Gu 2010 (April-June) rains and access to humanitarian interventions.