Somalia Updated IPC and Famine Risk Analysis Technical Release - 4th June 2022

Issued: June 7, 2022

Worsening drought is putting some areas in central and southern Somalia at an increased Risk of Famine through at least September 2022 if the current Gu season crop and livestock production fails, food prices continue to rise sharply and humanitarian assistance is not scaled up to reach those most in need. These areas include Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiraan, Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central, Agro Pastoral livelihoods in Bay and Bakool regions, and IDP settlements in Baidoa, Mogadishu, Dhusamareb, and Galkacyo. The situation in Bay region is particularly concerning as the acute malnutrition threshold for Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been breached in Baidoa district. Mortality (Crude Death Rate) has reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold in Bay Agropastoral of Burhakaba and Baidoa districts, and death rates among children have reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold in Bay Agropastoral of Baidoa district. While a Famine (IPC Phase 5) classification requires at least two of the three criteria to be met, the increase in acute malnutrition levels and mortality signal that loss of life and livelihoods is already occurring.

Acute food insecurity has continued to worsen across Somalia, with an estimated 5.2 million people (or 33% of the total population) already experiencing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) outcomes, including 38 000 people likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), as of May 2022, despite the ongoing delivery of humanitarian food assistance. Food assistance reached an average of 2.4 million people per month between February and April 2022 and has likely prevented the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes in many areas. However, humanitarian assistance delivery is far short of the rising level of need, and insufficient funding is expected to lead to pipeline breaks in food assistance delivery after June. Food insecurity and malnutrition are expected to deteriorate further and faster between June and September 2022, and if humanitarian food assistance is not scaled up and sustained, then approximately 7.1 million people (or 45% of the total population) are expected to face Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) outcomes. This figure includes 2.1 million people that will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 213 000 people that will likely be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). In addition to the population groups that face an increased Risk of Famine, other areas of concern include Northern Inland Pastoral of Northwest, Hawd Pastoral of Northwest, Southern Agropastoral, Southern Rain-fed Agropastoral of Middle and Lower Juba, and Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zones as well as IDP settlements in Burao, Lasaanod, Garoowe, Belet Weyne, Doolow and Kismaayo, all of which face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between June and September 2022.

Based on the results from 11 integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted between late April and early May 2022, the total acute malnutrition burden estimates for Somalia for 2022 have been revised and updated. Accordingly, as of May 2022, an estimated 1.5 million children under the age of five years (total acute malnutrition burden), representing 45 percent of the total population of children, face acute malnutrition through the end of the year, including 386 400 who are likely to be severely malnourished.

Urgent and timely scaling up of integrated humanitarian assistance is required to prevent extreme food insecurity and acute malnutrition, including starvation and excess mortality, in areas facing an increased Risk of Famine through at least September 2022. In particular, malnutrition and mortality outcomes in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts in Bay region already point to an extremely concerning situation as of May 2022. While only one of the criteria of Famine (IPC Phase 5) has been met in Baidoa district as of May, there is increasing concern that further deterioration in food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality may lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5) in these two districts if humanitarian assistance is not scaled up urgently in these areas. A new round of data collection will be undertaken in June to further assess the likelihood of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Bay Region. Moreover, available long-range forecasts indicate that a record fifth below-average rainy season is likely across Somalia during the forthcoming October and December 2022 Deyr season. Therefore, humanitarian needs are expected to worsen and remain high nationally well into 2023.

The conclusions above are based on updated IPC and Famine Risk Analyses conducted in May 2022 by food security and nutrition experts drawn from the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management (MOHADM) of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU/FAO), Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), World Food Programme (WFP VAM), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Action Against Hunger (ACF), and the Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Clusters, with the technical support of the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Global Support Unit (IPC GSU).

A multi-season drought that began in Somalia in late 2020 has continued to worsen through May 2022, leading to further deterioration of the food security and nutrition situation across many parts of the country. Persistent insecurity and conflict– particularly in central and southern Somalia, as well as global supply and price shocks, are further exacerbating the food insecurity situation in Somalia. While the current Gu (March/April-June) rains marginally replenished pasture and water resources in some locations, widespread water and pasture scarcity persists. Over three million livestock are estimated to have died since mid-2021 due to starvation and disease. Four consecutive poor or failed harvests since 2020, escalating local and imported food prices, and drought and conflict-induced population displacement are all leading to a decline in the coping capacity of poor and vulnerable populations across Somalia.

Cumulative Gu season rainfall between March to early June 2022 was 40-70 percent below average. Due to the impacts of drought on livestock health, poor and vulnerable pastoral households currently have limited access to milk and lack saleable animals. Pastoral households have also accumulated very high debt burdens, driven by the prohibitive costs of water and feed for livestock, an increased reliance on purchasing food for the family on credit, and abnormal livestock migration to distant areas in search of pasture and water. Agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones have had several consecutive failed cereal harvests, with further disruption to cash crop and cereal production in riverine areas due to low water levels in the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. In agropastoral and riverine areas, area planted and crop growth are far below normal due to the poor rains, the displacement of households away from their farms, and farmers’ reduced ability to afford seeds, irrigation, and other inputs.

Overall, the 2022 Gu season cereal harvest will likely be 40-60 percent below average, making it the fifth consecutive below-average harvest on record. Poor households who rely on income from agricultural employment opportunities continue to be adversely affected by the decline in crop cultivation and poor harvest prospects during the current Gu season. Reduced demand for agricultural labor has also driven down wages by as much as 25-35 percent for poor households who typically rely on this income source. The low supply of domestic cereals, the reduction of cross-border staple food imports from neighboring countries due to the regional nature of the drought across the eastern Horn of Africa, and the record-high increase in global food prices have all driven staple food prices out of the reach of most poor rural, urban and displaced families, who must purchase most of their food. In April, staple cereal and cooking oil prices were 25-160 percent above normal levels in most markets across Somalia.

In the coming months, the production and supply chain impacts of the conflict in Ukraine is expected to place further upward pressure on food prices, thereby threatening the food security of millions across Somalia. Rising food prices not only affect rural households, but also IDPs and the urban poor, who already spend a disproportionately large amount of their income on food (60-80%), have few opportunities to expand their incomes, and have an extremely limited scope to absorb the impact of further increases in food prices.

As a result of these compounding shocks, many rural households face widening food consumption gaps, and the erosion of their livelihoods limits their coping capacity. Social support systems are increasingly overstretched in many parts of the country. These factors have driven a surge in population displacement from rural areas to IDP settlements and towns and cities. Data obtained from UNHCR indicates that more than 700,000 people have been internally displaced due to drought since October 2021.

In pastoral areas, poor pastoralists are unable to cope with the extended impact of the ongoing drought due to rising costs of water and food, especially when they are already experiencing a significant decline in saleable animals due to distressed sales and excess deaths. Poor pastoral households are expected to face moderate to large food consumption gaps through September 2022, based on few livestock births, reduced income from livestock sales, and low availability of milk for both adults and children. Accordingly, most pastoral livelihoods across Somalia are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between June and September 2022. Specifically, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in Northern Inland Pastoral of Northwest; Hawd Pastoral of Northwest, Northeast and Central; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; and Coastal Deeh of Central.

Agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones experienced consecutive seasons of substantially below average or failed harvests and face the prospect of another poor harvest during the 2022 Gu season. As a result, poor households who sustained substantial crop losses and low income from agricultural employment face moderate to large food consumption gaps through September 2022. Most agropastoral and riverine livelihoods across Somalia are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between June and September 2022. Specifically, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected in Toghdeer Agropastoral and most agropastoral livelihoods in Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, and Lower and Middle Juba regions, including parts of Southern Agropastoral, Southern Rainfed Agropastoral, Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral, and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral.

With limited livelihood assets, few income-earning opportunities, rising food prices, low access to communal support and high reliance on external humanitarian assistance, a majority of the estimated 2.9 million IDPs across Somalia are poor. Population displacement due to drought and conflict has increased sharply since late 2021. As a result, IDP populations in existing settlements are increasing, and new IDP settlements are popping up in the most affected areas. New IDPs arrive in desperate conditions and often face numerous challenges accessing humanitarian assistance after their arrival. Due to anticipated, worsening drought conditions and persistent insecurity, an increase in population displacement from rural to urban areas and IDP settlements is expected to continue. As a result, a significant proportion of IDPs face moderate to large food consumption gaps through September 2022. Most of the main IDP settlements across Somalia are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between June and September 2022. These include IDP settlements in Burco, Lasaanod, Garowe, Galkacyo, Dhusamareb, Beletweyne, Mogadishu, Baidoa, Dollow, Dhobley (Afmadow) and Kismayo.

The urban poor across Somalia – who already spend a disproportionately large amount of their income on food (60-80%) – continue to struggle to feed themselves in the face of rising food prices. They have limited room to absorb the impact of further food price increases and have limited opportunities to expand their incomes. Declining labor wages and rising food prices have led to sharp declines in the terms of trade between wage labor and cereals. As a result, the urban poor face moderate to large food consumption gaps through September 2022. Most of the urban area across Somalia are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between June and September 2022. This includes Hargeisa city, which recently sustained a major fire that destroyed most of the businesses in the main market, which typically provided employment and sustenance for a majority of the urban poor.

Acute malnutrition is already at Critical levels in many areas of central and southern Somalia, and the number of acutely malnourished children being admitted to treatment centers is rapidly increasing, with two to four-fold increases reported in some districts. Worsening food security conditions and limited access to clean water have led to outbreaks of acute watery diarrhea (AWD) in many areas. Coupled with an increase in measles cases, disease incidence is contributing to rising levels of acute malnutrition, reflected in the rising number of moderately and severely malnourished children admitted to treatment centers. Acute malnutrition case admissions among children under age five rose by over 40 percent in January-April 2022 compared to the same period of last year. Results from 11 follow up integrated surveys conducted in late April/early May indicate worsening levels of acute malnutrition, with significant and rapid deterioration observed in Galkacyo IDPs, Beletweyne IDP/urban, Bay Agropastoral, and North Gedo Riverine livelihoods.

Levels of mortality (both the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and the Under-Five Death Rate (U5DR) have increased sharply among Bay Agropastoral, Baidoa IDPs, Mogadishu IDPs, and Kismayo IDPs. The most concerning increase is in Bay Agropastoral (Burhakaba and Baidoa districts), where the CDR has reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold. The U5DR has reached the Emergency (IPC Phase 4) threshold in Bay Agropastoral (Baidoa district).

Based on the results from 11 integrated food security, nutrition and mortality surveys conducted between late April and early May 2022, as of May 2022, an estimated 1.5 million children under the age of five years (total acute malnutrition burden), representing 45 percent of the total population of children, face acute malnutrition through the end of the year, including 386 400 who are likely to be severely malnourished. These figures are likely to increase as the nutrition situation deteriorates further in the affected areas.

Somalia Risk of Famine, June-September 2022

In the most likely scenario, approximately 213 000 people across the most affected areas face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between June and September 2022, representing 5 to 15 percent of the total population in these areas. Currently, the evidence criteria for Famine (IPC Phase 5), which is an area level outcome representing at least 20 percent of the population, has not been met for these areas over the same period. Nevertheless, there is increased Risk of Famine, meaning that Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur (has reasonable chance of happening) in eight areas across Somalia through September 2022 if (1) there is widespread crop and livestock production failure, (2) food prices continue to rise sharply and (3) humanitarian assistance is not scaled up to reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and population groups facing an increased Risk of Famine are Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiran; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Agro Pastoral livelihoods in Bay and Bakool; and IDP settlements in Mogadishu, Baidoa, Dhusamareb and Galkacyo.

(i)             April to June 2022 Gu season crop and livestock production fail. Under this scenario, widespread crop failure (more than 40-60 percent of long-term average) and increased livestock deaths are anticipated. In the most affected livelihoods, cumulative livestock deaths would likely exceed current expectations and reach as high as 20-30 percent. Widespread crop production failure will significantly diminish seasonal agricultural employment, which is a main income source among poor agropastoral and riverine households. The combination of limited saleable animals and lack of agricultural employment opportunities would subject poor pastoral, agropastoral and riverine households to face widening food consumption gaps as they lack alternative income sources.

(ii)            Further and substantial food price increases (50% or more above the average for the previous five years) driven by the following factors: failed local harvests; continuing regional drought in neighboring countries that reduces cross-border supplies; record-high global food prices and further impacts of the war in Ukraine on global food and fuel prices; and other locally significant factors, including insecurity and high inflation and depreciation of the local currency in some regions. This would adversely affect the purchasing power of poor households in rural and urban areas as well as IDPs. In the worst-affected areas, this would contribute to widening food consumption gaps among poor and vulnerable households.

 (iii)          Worsening drought conditions during the dry Hagaa (July-September) season leads to influx of newly displaced people to IDP settlements and urban areas where opportunities remain limited, thereby further exacerbating their food insecurity. Furthermore, overcrowded IDP settlements with poor water and sanitation conditions would likely result in a worsening outbreak of measles and acute watery diarrhea (AWD), with rising cases affecting mostly children under-five years of age. Under this scenario, levels of acute malnutrition could rapidly increase to 30 percent or more Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) which is one of the thresholds for Famine (IPC Phase 5) classification.

(iv)           Increased conflict and insecurity lead to further increases in population displacement, disrupt market access and functionality, impede household access to livelihood opportunities and restricts access to humanitarian assistance, with a risk of potential exclusion of vulnerable groups, especially in central and southern Somalia.

(v)            Humanitarian assistance does not keep pace with the rapidly increasing level of need – particularly as rising food prices reduce the purchasing power of cash transfer values – and does not reach the most affected areas. Given that the gap between the conditions in the most likely scenario and the conditions in the alternative Risk of Famine scenario is increasingly narrow, the aversion of Famine (IPC Phase 5) increasingly hinges on urgent scaling up and continuation of humanitarian assistance.

The following risk factors need to be closely monitored throughout the projection period:

• Conduct follow up integrated food security, nutrition and mortality assessments in Bay Region (Baidoa and Burhakaba districts)
• Food prices, livestock prices, wage rates and terms of trade
• 2022 Gu season crop harvest
• 2022 Gu season rainfall impact on pasture and water availability during the dry Hagaa season
• Livestock body condition, births and deaths
• Population displacement
•  Admission of acutely malnourished children to treatment and feeding centers
• Acute malnutrition and mortality levels among children and adults (GAM, U5DR and CDR)Humanitarian food assistance (coverage and access)

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