SOMALIA Food Security Outlook Update April to September 2018

Heavy rainfall supports Gu crop development in most areas, though significant flooding also reported

KEY MESSAGES

• In several areas of southern Somalia, food security is expected to improve more than previously anticipated as a result of likely above-average Gu harvests. However, in northern and central regions, poor pastoralists will still have few salable animals to purchase food. In the absence of assistance, wide areas of northern and central Somalia are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely in parts of Northern Inland Pastoral and Aduun Pastoral livelihood zone through May and in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone between June and September. 

• Rainfall during the first months of the 2018 Gu season has been well above average across most of the country. Due to this and heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, river water levels have sharply increased and flooding has occurred in several areas, including Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, and Togdheer. Flooding has caused crop damage and displaced households. Further flooding is likely though May.

• Gu crops have germinated and based on current crop conditions and forecast rainfall through June, it is now expected that cereal production in rainfed areas will be above the recent five-year average. In riverine areas, as a result of current and expected crop damage from flooding, below-average maize production is expected in June. However, above-average off-season maize production is likely in September.

• Pasture and water availability have steadily increased in April, and livestock body conditions have improved to normal in most areas. With medium goat and sheep births in most regions, livestock herd sizes are slowly recovering. However, herd sizes are still expected to remain well below normal throughout 2018 and several consecutive favorable seasons are needed for herd sizes to recover to typical levels.