FSNAU Releases the Nutrition Situation Update for Somalia (May - June, 2012)

Issued: June 29, 2012

The nutrition situation among rural,urban and IDP populations across Somalia is likely to remain unchanged since January 2012. Northern and central regions are projected to remain in Serious.

Critical phases, while southern regions will likely remain in Very Critical phase, except for Lower Shabelle in Critical phase where average crop harvests are anticipated. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are likely to remain in Critical-Very Critical nutrition phase except for Hargeisa IDPs, in sustained Serious phase, Mogadishu IDPs in Critical and Mogadishu Urban in Serious phases, based on surveys conducted in April-June 2012 (Maps 1 and 2).

The nutrition forecast for June-July 2012 is based on four factors: the situation in January 2012; historical nutrition trends for the season; the food security and the health situation during this period.

• The situation in January 2012: Major shifts in the nutrition phase within a span of six months are not typical for Somalia based on FSNAU time trend series, 2008-2011. Hence the south in which the nutrition situation was Very Critical in January 2012 is likely to remain in this phase, but with slight improvements.
• Historical nutrition trends (2008-2011) for the Gu (April-June) season: These show Serious-Critical phases as typical in northern and central regions. In the south, the situation has ranged from Critical in Juba pastoralists, to Very Critical in Bay region since Gu 2008. Considering the ongoing insecurity in Juba, and with it limited access to humanitarian support, the situation is likely to remain Very Critical. In IDPs the situation is typically Critical-Very Critical exept for Hargeisa (Serious)
• The prevailing and projected food security situation: There are improvements compared to Gu 2011 when famine was declared. Increased household food access will mitigate the nutrition situation and maintain malnutrition levels below famine thresholds. Average crop harvests anticipated in Lower Shabelle region are likely to lead to improvements to a Critical nutrition phase in this area.
• The health situation has deteriorated since January-March 2012 (dry Jilaal season), consistent with seasonal trends. Nevertheless, the WHO’s Somalia emergency health bulletin (June 9-15, 2012) indicates that the caseloads affected by disease have began to show a declining trend. Typical with seasonal trend, high morbidity levels are likely to aggravate the nutrition situation

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