Focus on Post Deyr 10/11 Season Early Warning
Issued: December 16, 2010
There are clear signs of a worsening food security situation in most livelihoods of Somalia, as a result of unusually below average precipitation caused by the La Niña meteorological phenomenon.
The impact of the poor performance of Deyr rains is demonstrated by failed crops in most of the southern crop-producing regions, and considerable water and pasture shortages in most key pastoral areas of the country, causing deterioration in livestock conditions. These developments indicate reduced food production (cereals, milk and meat) in the country, which will consequently be reflected in increased food prices and the numbers of food insecure people is likely to rise in early 2011.
The main areas of concern are rain-fed agropastoral areas of southern and central Somalia, where crop production has largely been impacted by the poor rainfall; cattle-breeding pastoral communities in South-East Pastoral; all livelihoods of Hiran and Bakool regions; entire Coastal Deeh livelihood; Addun Pastoral, Nugal Valley and Sool Plateau. Some of these areas have recently suffered from consecutive seasons of below average rainfall.
Therefore, the capacity to withstand the current crisis during the harsh Jilaal dry season is very limited, particularly in the areas that are currently in Humanitarian Emergency. The poor performance of the short rains will have milder impact on the population in the regions with previous consecutive seasons of good production, such as Bay and Gedo. In addition, parts of the Northwest with average Deyr rainfall, such as Awdal, W. Galbeed and western part of Togdheer Agropastoral will not fall into crisis.
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