Focus on Deyr Season Early Warning (Quarterly Brief)
Issued: November 4, 2010
The food security situation in all livelihoods of Somalia remains as classified during the post Gu 2010 analysis (Aug ‘10). The Juba riverine livelihood, where Gu harvest was damaged by the floods in May 2010, has received a good off-season harvest in September this year, which has largely offset the previous losses. However, despite very positive food security and nutrition indicators, the Humanitarian Emergency phase is retained for the livelihood until the end of this year, considering multiple risk factors that may easily reverse the fragile improvements in the region (La Niña event, conflicts, etc). The food security situation continues to improve in Northwest Agropastoral livelihood, which received bumper Gu/Karan harvest in 2010. The production, which is estimated to be the highest in more than a decade, will reinforce food availability and access in the livelihood. However, a below-normal Deyr rainfall was observed across Somalia in October, which could be attributed to the recently declared La Niña event. Although the impact of below-normal rainfall is not yet visible, if dry conditions persist in the Deyr season, this will cause a rapid depletion of pasture and water and will affect crop productivity, thereby gradually reversing food security gains of the last two seasons.
Climate:
South-Central Somalia remained predominantly dry during Hagaa season. The exceptions are the coastal areas of Shabelle and Juba regions, agropastoral livelihoods of Bay region and parts of the Cowpea Belt livelihood in Central where Hagaa rains were observed in July-August. In the North, good Karan rains were received in Awdal and Waqooi Galbeed, while the drought affected region of Sanaag has also received good Karan rains during the third dekad of August. Deyr rains strated early, in mid-September, falling mostly in pastoral areas of Northwest and parts of Northeast. However, Deyr rains were erratic and insignificant across Somalia during October, which could be a manifestation of La Niña event.
Civil Insecurity:
Civil insecurity and conflicts continue to be one of the main constraining factors of food and livelihood security in Somalia. Fighting between opposing groups in South-Central parts of the country in the reporting period (Jul – Oct ‘10) caused life and livelihood losses, destruction of buildings and other infrastructure, disruption of economic and trade activities and population displacements. Fewer incidents were reported in the North compared to the other parts of the country. Based on Inter-Agency Standing Committee’ Population Movement Tracking (IASC PMT) information about 105,000 people were displaced during July-October 2010. The recent UNHCR population assessment (Sep. ’10) revised the number of displaced people from 1.41 million to 1.46 million. The changes are primarily attributable to increased numbers of the displaced in Afgoye corridor.
Agriculture:
FSNAU off-season crop assessment (Sep ’10) estimated good off-season harvest of maize and cash crops (sesame, cowpea) in riverine areas of Juba regions. About 84% of the off-season maize was harvested in Middle Juba. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) with the participation from FSNAU, World Food Program (WFP) and Somaliland Ministry of Agriculture carried out Gu/Karan crop assessment in the Northwest Agropastoral in October 2010. During the assessment, Pictorial Evaluation Tool was utilized to assess the crop yields. The assessment results indicate the exceptionally good Gu/Karan cereal production (79,000Mt) in the livelihood. Land preparation and Deyr dry planting were observed in all crop growing regions of the South-Central since early September. However, further delay in Deyr rains may affect proper germination of crops, particularly in agropastoral areas.
Livestock:
Pasture, browse and water conditions are good in most pastoral as well as agropastoral areas of the Northwest due to the combined effect of good Gu 2010 rains followed by prolonged Karan and early Deyr rains in September. Improved rangeland and water conditions have also been reported in coastal areas and neighboring inlands of Shabelle and Juba regions due to good Hagaa rains. However, pastoral areas of Central and most of the South remained dry during Hagaa season and the Deyr rains are also delayed. Livestock exports increased for the current Hajj period up to the levels exeeding the export volume of the same period last year. The reasons for the current year exports being relatively higher include lifting of Somali livestock imports ban by the Gulf States in October 2009, as well as increased livestock ground-holding facilities in Berbera and Bossaso ports.
Markets:
Both Somali as well as Somaliland shillings have strengthened against the United States (US) dollar since June 2010 due to increased remittances during the Ramadan and Iddul Fitri festivity and foreign exchange earnings from livestock exports for the current Hajj period. The prices of most imported commodities (vegetable oil, sugar, rice, wheat flour) have moderately increased during July-September 2010 in most markets of Somalia mainly due to reduced supply during the monsoon season (Jun-Sep). In the next two months, the principal factors that will determine import commodity prices in Somalia include import supplies, commodity movements within the country and the world market price behavior with the observed increasing trend of rice price. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown marginal to moderate increases throughout Somalia in July-September 2010, mostly driven by increases in the sugar, wheat flour and red sorghum prices.
Nutrition:
Results of the nutrition survey in Sanaag Region in October 2010 by FSNAU/UNICEF/International Medical Corps depict a sustained Alert nutrition phase since the Post Gu 2010 integrated analysis, with global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of >8.5% (Pr= 0.90) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) rate of >0.6% (Pr= 0.90). The retrospective crude death rate of 0.35 (0.14-0.86) deaths/10,000 persons/day and no under-five deaths reported, indicate an Acceptable situation according to the WHO classification. A rapid nutrition assessment conducted in October 2010 among the destitute pastoralists of the Northeast indicate an Acceptable nutrition situation, but with risk of deterioration considering the large proportion applying severe coping strategies.
The FSNAU Post Gu 2010 integrated nutrition analysis indicated Juba Riverine community to be in a Very Critical nutrition phase. Health facility growth monitoring and feeding facilities admissions data currently show high but decreasing numbers of acutely malnourished children in the last three months.
Urban:
The current urban analysis did not show any significant changes in the urban food and livelihood security since the last reporting period (Jan-Jun 2010). There are indications of improved urban food security in Juba and Shabelle regions during July-September period where purchasing power of the population has considerably improved due to reduced cereal prices and increased labour wage rates. The cost of living has been driven down by reduced local cereal prices in these two regions. However, the situation is sustained from the post Gu 2010 analysis results in other areas. The Cost of the Minimum Basket (CMB) has increased in the range of 1-8% in these urban areas due to increased sorghum prices. However, the impact of CMB increase on food access of the urban poor is moderated by increases in labour wage rates observed across Somalia. Central Somalia is the exception with the wage rates remaining stable or declining mainly due to the recurring conflicts, which restrained trade and market activities. By zones, the highest CMB in July-September 2010 was recorded in Northwest and the lowest was in the South, which is comparable to the trend observed in the first half of 2010.
Rural:
The food and livelihood security situation has shown improvement in most regions of the South in July-September 2010 period, as indicated by strengthened purchasing power of population. The terms of trade improved between local goat and cereal as well as between wage rates and cereals due to intense agricultural (off-season, Deyr) activities as well as livestock trade activities. The situation has improved also in Juba Riverine livelihoods after off-season harvest in September, as indicated by improvements in terms of trade, decline in local cereal prices as well as improved nutrition indicators.
In the Central, the food security situation in Hawd and Addun Pastoral areas is sustaining the improving trend since Gu 2010 season as demonstrated by increasing rates of kidding/lambing and livestock price rises. However, Coastal Deeh and Cowpea Belt livelihoods have shown no signs of improvement since Gu 2010 as no rains precipitated throughout the Hagaa period, while Deyr rains have not yet commenced. However, goat prices have risen due to increased demand during Hajj period, which positively impacted purchasing power as indicated by increased terms of trade between local quality goat and rice.
In the North, the food security situation has improved in most pastoral and agropastoral of Northwest due to combined positive effects of the favourable Gu 2010 season, good Karan rains and early moderate Deyr rains in September 2010. The rains have positively affected water and pasture, livestock conditions and milk production in the zone. In addition, a bumper harvest in agropastoral areas has further improved cereal availability and accessibility in the zone. However, the situation is deteriorating in Nugal Valley, Sool Plateau of Sanaag and Sool regions, Addun Pastoral and Coastal Deeh due to prevailing dry conditions.
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