Emergency (IPC Phase 4) likely in several IDP settlements through January 2025

Issued: July 25, 2024

Key messages

· Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are assessed in Somalia from June to September in the areas worst affected by flooding, conflict, and the 2020-2023 drought. Many pastoralists and some agropastoralists are benefiting from recent livestock births, milk availability, and livestock productivity, while in agropastoral and riverine areas, the second consecutive below-average harvest due to flooding is limiting typical seasonal improvement in access to food and income. An estimated 3.8 million people remain displaced, many of whom face moderate to large food consumption gaps and receive inadequate food assistance.

· Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will likely persist in some areas from October to January. Favorable flood-recession harvests will become available and livestock births — supported by good conception rates in early 2024 — are expected; however, La Niña conditions will likely bring rainfall deficits in late 2024 and below-average Deyr 2024/2025 harvests. The benefits of the preceding above-average rains on livestock production will likely partially and temporarily mitigate negative impacts on pastoralists’ food security.

· The areas of highest concern include IDP settlements, southern riverine areas of Gedo and Middle Shabelle regions, central and coastal pastoral areas, as well as some southern and northern agropastoral areas. An estimated 3-4 million people still need food assistance, and needs are anticipated to peak from June to August, largely driven by flood-induced crop losses during the 2024 Gu season.

· Despite the high food assistance needs, a scale-down of assistance is anticipated. As of June, only roughly 40 percent of the funding requirements for Somalia’s 2024 food security and livelihoods response have been met. Budget constraints suggest assistance levels will further scale down through late 2024. As conflict, flood, and drought-displaced households lack the resources to meet their needs, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are anticipated in several IDP settlements through January.