Deyr flooding drives elevated needs, though rain will aid drought recovery

Issued: November 28, 2023

Key Messages

• Humanitarian assistance needs remain high in Somalia, as many households continue to suffer from the impacts of the historic five-season (2020–2023) drought, particularly in central pastoral areas and settlements for internally displaced people. Additionally, in October, flooding associated with significantly above-average deyr rainfall is increasing needs in riverine and flood-affected agropastoral areas of the south. In October, most of the country is facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are assessed in central Coastal Deeh Pastoral areas and among the severely conflict-affected displaced populations in Laascaanood.

• The October to December deyr rainy season started on time or slightly early in most of the country. The intensity of rainfall quickly increased in October, with heavy rainfall and rapidly rising river water levels causing severe flooding in southern riverine and even agropastoral livelihood zones. The flooding has caused population displacement and damage to standing crops, in addition to disrupting agricultural activities for the deyr season.

• In riverine and other flood-prone areas, needs are expected to remain elevated during the October to December deyr rainy season due to anticipated negative impacts of heavy rainfall and flooding. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely in riverine areas during this period, and an increase in the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes is expected in urban areas and IDP settlements in riverine areas alongside an influx of IDPs from rural areas. However, despite severe disruptions to the main deyr agricultural season in flooded areas, recessional cultivation opportunities once the floods subside will provide income-earning opportunities from agricultural labor and food and income from the recessional harvest around March/April. This will improve outcomes to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

• In the rest of the country, the deyr seasonal rains are expected to generally support crop and livestock production. As such, though main-season deyr crop production is now expected to be below-average at the national level given losses due to waterlogging and flooding in affected areas, most rural households will experience improved access to seasonal food and income during the October to December deyr season and the beginning of the 2024 gu season in April and May, leading to widespread improvement in acute food insecurity outcomes in the February to May 2024 period. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in northern areas worst affected by prior seasons of poor crop production, central areas worst affected by the 2020 to 2023 drought, and riverine areas affected by flooding during the deyr season. Meanwhile, in IDP settlements, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will be likely given low levels of assistance and a continued influx of IDPs due to flooding and conflict.

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