Food and Livelihood Security Projections

This core analytical activity identifies specific populations and areas that are at an increased risk to food and livelihood insecurity as the direct result of an event or shock in order to provide early warning to decision makers for appropriate support and interventions.

The FSNAU undertakes three types of food and livelihood security projections:

1. Annual - generated after the main rainy season (and updated following the minor rainy season) and projects food and livelihood security outcomes for the year by area and socio-economic group.
2. Ad Hoc - conducted when there is a sudden major shock or hazard which may lead to food and livelihood insecurity and for which decision makers require can use for planning immediate and medium term emergency responses, e.g. flood, hurricane, market ban, etc.
3. Projections for Preparedness Planning - modeling of potential shocks or hazards for the purpose of identifying populations at risk of food and livelihood insecurity to inform preparedness planning, e.g. vulnerability analysis for sever flooding.

Three types of information and analysis are combined in generating Food and Livelihood Security Projections:-

1. Baseline livelihood information (Baseline Livelihoods Analysis)
2. Event or hazard information  (Discrete Event Analysis)
3. Livelihood response information (Impact Analysis)

Key Questions Food and Livelihood Security Projections Address:-

• What is the food security outlook for the year, and are there people who are likely to face food or livelihood insecurity in the near future? If so, who are they, where do they live, how many are affected and why are they affected? (Annual Food Security Projections).
• If a sudden shock or hazard, e.g. flood, civil war, were to occur, who is most vulnerable to food insecurity as a result of this shock, how many are affected, why would they be affected, and how would they be affected? (Projections for Preparedness and Contingency Planning).
• What is the impact of the immediate event, hazard or shock, e.g. eruption of civil war, on the food security situation and who is most affected? (For Ad hoc Food Security Projections)

FSNAU outputs from Food and Livelihood Security Vulnerability Projections:-

1. Two Technical Series Reports on Food and Livelihood Security Projections for the year
2. Ad hoc and Preparedness Planning Food Security Projection technical reports