Overview

The erratic rainfall between May and June 2024 led to a reduction in crop production in agropastoral livelihoods. While the Gu rains improved the pasture and water availabilities in pastoral livelihoods, localised floods affected population in riverine and adjacent urban areas in Hiraan, Gedo, Middle Shabelle and lower Shabelle displacing part of the population. Conflict and insecurity across regions also led to population displacement and disrupted agricultural activities and market access.

As a consequence, approximately 3.6 million Somalis (19 percent of the population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between July to September 2024. Of these, 2.9 million people (15 percent of the population) are in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis), and around 724 000 people (4 percent of the population) are experiencing worse conditions in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency).

In comparison to the same period last year, when approximately 3.7 million people were classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) due to protracted drought, the current figure represents a slight (3 percent) reduction in the number of food insecure population. This is attributed to better rainfall over the past two seasons with a positive impact on livelihoods and continued humanitarian assistance, albeit at a reduced level.

Further worsening of the food security situation is expected in the projected period from October to December 2024, when below-normal Deyr season rains are anticipated. As a result, the number of people facing IIPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) is expected to increase to 4.4 million (23 percent of the population).

Key drivers for acute food insecurity and malnutrition 

Flooding: Riverine and flash floods caused damages population displacement, crop losses, and disruptions to market access in some southern parts of Somalia.

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